Latest Forex Commentary

Crude Oil Prints Bearish Reversal Signal At Weekly Range Top

weekly range top

Looking at a bearish setup today on the US crude oil markets (WTI) .

First I will draw your attention to the weekly chart – staring the top-down analysis.

It’s can be seen quickly that we have a major level at work here. Look to the left and we can see a resistance level ย which has been acting as a range top, apart from the overshot we got there for a few weeks.

Take in what information you can at what the history history has to offer…

This level has been a big time producer of bearish moves, so we can only expect this will likely occur again. Keeping that in mind we move down to the time frame the bearish signal occurred on – the daily chart.

weekly range top rejection signal with battle station alert

We’ve got a nice bearish rejection candle, which is a reversal signal, waiting for us on the daily time frame.

The candle pattern basically communicates rejection of higher prices, and the potential start of a bearish reversal.

I’ve also put on the chart from my chart scanner tool, the price action battle station (available as part of the war room) if you’re interested in checking that out.

Bringing down the analysis from the weekly time frame, and combings that with the bearish rejection candle, we’ve got a good case to sell against the trend – anticipating a major reversal.

Counter trend trading is harder, but if you get into a counter trend move – they are very profitable. Therefor I will be gunning for 6x ROI here (1:6 risk/reward) if this setup takes off to the downside.

Also trying to catch a retracement entry, but crude oil can be a tricky beast, so getting an entry will be the first challenge.

Let’s see what happens, best of luck on the charts everybody ๐Ÿ™‚

AUDCHF Breaks Trend Line Structure – Lower Prices Expected From Breakout Candle

audchf trend line structure breakout

Last session we got a bearish event on the AUDCHF pair, spotted on the daily chart.

Looking above, we can see the market is coming down from a weekly resistance level, a location on the chart where we expect major reversals to occur.

There was a bearish outside candle signal at the weekly support for anyone who caught that. That signal seen lower prices develop, and the price action was able to break through a trend line structure sitting just below.

We can see the ‘breakout candle’, which signals the event highlighted in yellow by my battle station plugin.

The breakout candle is the actual ‘trade signal’ you can take action on.

If the lows of the breakout candle are broken during London trading hours, we could see the next push into lower lows!

These chart structures that hold back price for a long time can cause rapid breakouts when they are broken.

Big Price Action Reversal Signal At Major Range Top – Gold Bearish Setup

gold weekly range top

During my normal review of the charts over the weekend – ย I quickly identified a bearish price action setup on gold that I could not refuse.

This setup is straight forward and simple – just the way I like it.

Starting off the analysis on the weekly chart, it’s very easy to see the market is range-bound, and that price is currently testing the range top resistance.

These are the major levels where we should expect, and to look out for potential reversal signals.

Then when we step down onto the daily chart…

gold daily price action setup

On the daily chart we straight up see a bearish rejection candle (a reversal signal), coming right off the weekly structure.

The anatomy of the rejection candle looks authoritative, and is a high value trade when stacked up against a major weekly level.

My Battle Station chart assistant tool also sent me a notification to my phone – just in case I missed it ๐Ÿ™‚

I am going to try grab a pull back entry if price retraces up the rejection candle – which it normally does when the candle is large in range like this.

If this reversal signal does play out, the reward potential is large here. Even setting a target mid way down the range will yield about 500% ROI!

I’ve set up my sell limit order, and waiting to get filled.

All the best for those trading this one ๐Ÿ™‚

 

No Bearish Follow Through – Time To Get Out!

gold-cancel

An update for this gold trade, a sad one – because I had dollar signs in my eyes with this one.

I decided to press the eject button and bail on this trade, due to lack of bearish responsiveness.

The initial bearish rejection candle short trade was filled at the pull back entry (awesome), but there just has not been any further indication this market wants to move down.

In fact, there was a bullish rejection candle printed after the volatility caused by the FED talks at the Jackson Hole event.

Generally with these type of major weekly level trades, you want to see some decent reaction after a few days.

In this case, we can only see signs of strength, so it’s not ideal to be short any longer.

The simple way to look at these weekly trades is, the market must make a decision – “break or bounce”.

Initially it looked like a bounce, but without any downside follow through, and the presence of large bullish rejection showing denial of lower prices, it’s starting to look like it wants to “break”.

I am not going to switch and go long, I don’t really want to trade through a weekly level. I’ll wait for the market to clear the resistance and wait for buy opportunities above it.

Until the next signal – best of luck on the charts.