Latest Forex Commentary

AUDUSD Daily Sell Signal Backed By Huge Weekly Sell Signal

audusd weekly bounce follow through

Still watching AUDUSD like a hawk, remembering that we have a very large weekly sell signal coming off the major weekly level here.

So far we have not seen any bearish follow through, so no action has been taken.

Looking for any signs of bearish continuation from that weekly signal, like bearish reversal signals that form on lower highs on the daily / 8 hour chart.

Right now we’re sitting around the 50% retracement level of the weekly signal, so we could see something develop this session.

Otherwise, the major resistance level may be tested for a second time for some double top action, what for sells there also.

A Daily Signal Is Printed РCompleting the Trade Idea

audusd daily sell after weekly sell

aud h4 prints in line with bearish trade

The trade idea has now evolved further into the next stage by printing some sell signals on both the 4 hour and Daily chart.

The 4 hour signal offering an ‘early bird’ signal, but the daily still giving end of day traders a signal to enter also.

This bearish trade setup has all the ingredients needed. It’s backed by top down analysis from the weekly chart, and technically looks good on the daily chart after bouncing off lower highs.

The anatomy of the daily candle looks very authoritative in terms of bearish presence with a close price much lower than the open price for the day – creating a thick bearish body.

Expecting a decent move out of this one!

 

AUDUSD Drops The Bass

There is nothing more satisfying that being in a price action trade  that was backed by good analysis.

We planned this trade out, waited for the signal, and pulled the trigger when the market told us to sell.

This is the beauty of top down analysis – you can plan out for the larger moves in the market, and align your trades with the bigger picture in the market.

Sometimes a daily signal will look good, but the weekly chart will scream a different story – usually the weekly chart wins.

Wasn’t too ambitious on this one, happy to take 1:4 – but those who held on got a ride to the next weekly support level and really cleaned up.

Congrats to all who got on board this train.

If you’re looking to learn how to trade with price action with the top down analysis style, you can check out the war room for traders – it contains the price action protocol course that teaches this price action strategy.

All the best on the charts!

GBPNZD Drops Large Outside Day Right At Bullish Hot Spot

gbpnzd outside candle daily at swing level

 

Nice swing trade here with the bullish trend. A bullish outside day has formed on a higher lower, right at the mean value (which has been acting as a turning point).

We can see this is a nice swing level (old resistance now new support), which is ideal for a trend trade.

Ideally we want a retrace entry here, otherwise the reward potential looks too low.

Caution if you do get triggered long, there is a level above which is visible on the weekly chart which may cause some blocking action to the upside. So just watch for any heavy bearish ques when price tests that level as an early warning sign to exit.

 

Weekly Level Contested

gbpnzd contesting weekly level

As anticipated, this trade is having trouble with the weekly resistance level above.

Normally I would not try to trade through this, however the level has already been tested once and we didn’t see any strong bearish follow through.

In short, the bulls are still putting a lot of pressure on this level, and the mean value continues to remain a stable dynamic support layer.

If the weekly level does pop, the move to the upside could be very violent and produce some high return on this trade.

Of course, any heavy sell signals off this weekly level will be a red flag to get out of this trade.

EURCAD 8H Chart Drops Asia Session Inside Candle @ Swing Point

eurcad 8h inside candle

Looking at the EURCAD 8 hour chart today where an interesting situation has formed.

An inside candle has printed – demonstrating the market has stalled as a result of the market bumping into this swing level. The inside candle is a reflection of the market thinking ‘hmm, what should we do now?’

Inside candles that form at points on the chart where a ‘break or bounce’ decision needs to be made usually provide the better breakouts.

Although this 8 hour chart looks reasonably bullish with it’s higher highs and higher lower, I think it’s a bit deceptive. Top-down analysis is key for swing trading, and the weekly and daily chart both look bearish.

This inside candle on the 8 hour chart basically represents the Asia session price action. If you can get on the 8 hour charts, you will noticed it is common for an ‘Asia session inside candle’ to form, which is then followed by a breakout during the money sessions (London & US).

I am only interested in a downside breakout here, as the weekly and daily chart are communicating lower prices a likely.

The weekly chart shows the market bouncing off weekly resistance, and the daily chart shows a bearish mean reversion underway.

Looking for bearish breaks of the 8 hour candle low for short opportunities.